Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.609713 14.441770 16.416984 18.701140 21.265932 24.053000 27.306895
2025-04-06 9.776210 12.223071 15.067751 18.604303 22.866947 27.821995 33.999858
2025-04-13 7.879581 10.442248 13.573143 17.652808 22.798286 29.039771 37.147311
2025-04-20 7.006799 9.767221 13.287319 18.062096 24.319907 32.186402 42.758978
2025-04-27 6.320691 9.209026 13.031979 18.400205 25.670350 35.090049 48.118435
2025-05-04 5.607101 8.517982 12.508099 18.295037 26.373942 37.136741 52.418028
2025-05-11 4.965567 7.847187 11.929418 18.031213 26.792878 38.768000 56.183385
2025-05-18 4.506850 7.387654 11.594565 18.058880 27.581985 40.902861 60.698173
2025-05-25 4.160257 7.056883 11.408220 18.267628 28.613767 43.395881 65.798752
2025-06-01 3.802556 6.669963 11.097872 18.253231 29.293832 45.392143 70.252155
2025-06-08 3.452145 6.258186 10.709961 18.079680 29.704038 46.988812 74.166209
2025-06-15 3.216006 6.010904 10.556938 18.251376 30.634314 49.377885 79.333660
2025-06-22 3.074326 5.917206 10.652961 18.839523 32.267826 52.938194 86.483925
2025-06-29 2.804107 5.572712 10.305921 18.677003 32.692321 54.658235 90.894914
2025-07-06 2.433416 5.008166 9.535917 17.743820 31.792392 54.239126 91.921442
2025-07-13 2.316127 4.901720 9.551658 18.147274 33.117026 57.399754 98.723911
2025-07-20 2.199305 4.784165 9.536169 18.489551 34.347731 60.450852 105.461750
2025-07-27 2.029262 4.545394 9.280298 18.382973 34.794307 62.225439 110.181436
2025-08-03 1.854494 4.279384 8.951733 18.118341 34.941895 63.496402 114.105148
2025-08-10 1.731845 4.108496 8.789295 18.146013 35.601631 65.647387 119.569025
2025-08-17 1.640385 3.994512 8.727440 18.355703 36.594040 68.399071 126.143337
2025-08-24 1.531403 3.831620 8.555746 18.341229 37.169813 70.444881 131.576367
2025-08-31 1.415001 3.640366 8.311504 18.166934 37.433794 71.945779 136.110154